基于MaxEnt模型的银胶菊及其天敌银胶菊叶甲的适生区预测

doi:10.16409/j.cnki.2095-039x.2025.02.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 银胶菊Parthenium hysterophorus是一种全球入侵性杂草，广泛分布于热带和亚热带地区。银胶菊叶甲Zygogramma bicolorata作为银胶菊天敌昆虫，对该杂草具有较好的防治效果。预测银胶菊及其生防天敌银胶菊叶甲的适生区可以为其生物防治和区域管理提供参考。因此，本研究基于两个物种的全球发生点和21个环境变量，利用MaxEnt模型预测了银胶菊和银胶菊叶甲在近现代气候条件下的全球适生区。研究结果表明，影响银胶菊适生区分布的主要因子为最冷季节平均温（bio11）、最湿月份降水量（bio13）、最湿季节平均温（bio8）和人类影响指数（HII）；影响银胶菊叶甲适生区分布的主要因子为最暖季节平均温（bio10）、最湿月份降水量（bio13）、等温性（bio3）和人类影响指数（HII）；银胶菊和银胶菊叶甲在全球的适生区面积分别为5426.79× 10⁴ km²和1410.59× 10⁴ km²，适生区重叠面积为1357.66× 10⁴ km²，主要分布在亚洲（巴基斯坦、印度、中国南部以及大部分东南亚国家），北美洲墨西哥湾沿岸（美国中低纬度地区、墨西哥东部沿海地区），非洲西部的尼日尔河流域和东南部的赞比西河流域（赞比亚、尼日利亚等），南美洲中南部（巴西东南部地区、阿根廷北部地区等）。本研究结果为在适生区重叠区域内利用银胶菊叶甲防治银胶菊提供了依据。

关键词: 银胶菊, 银胶菊叶甲, 适生区, MaxEnt

Abstract: Parthenium hysterophorus is an invasive weed globally, widely distributed in tropical and subtropical regions. The leaf beetle Zygogramma bicolorata, a natural enemy of P. hysterophorus, has shown to be an effective biological control agent in some countries/regions. Predicting the suitable habitats for P. hysterophorus and Z. bicolorata can provide valuable information for its biological control and regional management. Therefore, this study used the MaxEnt model, based on species global occurrence points and 21 environmental variables, to predict the suitable habitats for P. hysterophorus and Z. bicolorata worldwide under nearly current climate. The model suggested that the main factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for P. hysterophorus were mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of wettest month (bio13), mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8), and human influence index (HII). While the main factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for Z. bicolorata were mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), precipitation of wettest month (bio13), isothermality (bio3), and human influence index (HII). The model prediction indicates that the area of potential suitable habitats for P. hysterophorus and Z. bicolorata were 5426.79×10⁴ km² and 1410.59×10⁴ km² respectively, with an overlapping area of 1357.66×10⁴ km². These areas were mainly distributed in Asia (Pakistan, India, Southern China and most Southeast Asian countries), the Gulf Coast of North America (low and middle latitudes area of the United States, and the Eastern coast of Mexico), the Niger River Basin in Western Africa and the Zambezi River Basin in Southeastern Africa, as well as Central and Southern South America (Southeastern Brazil and Northern Argentina). The results of this study provide a basis for using Z. bicolorata to control P. hysterophorus in their overlapping regions.

Key words: Parthenium hysterophorus, Zygogramma bicolorata, suitable habitat, Maxent

中图分类号:

S476

陈地宝, 张玉, 杨鸣, 林蓉, 刘万学, Weyl Philip, 冼晓青. 基于MaxEnt模型的银胶菊及其天敌银胶菊叶甲的适生区预测[J]. 中国生物防治学报, 2025, 41(2): 423-435.

CHEN Dibao, ZHANG Yu, YANG Ming, LIN Rong, LIU Wanxue, WEYL Philip, XIAN Xiaoqing. Suitable Habitat Prediction of Parthenium hysterophorus and Its Natural Enemy Zygogramma bicolorata based on MaxEnt Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Biological Control, 2025, 41(2): 423-435.

参考文献

[1] Vitousek P M, Mooney H A, Lubchenco J, et al. Human domination of earth's ecosystems[J]. Science, 1997, 277(5325): 494-499.
[2] 廖慧璇, 周婷, 陈宝明, 等. 外来入侵植物的生态控制[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 60(4): 1-11.
[3] 吴海荣. 南京地区外来杂草调查及婆婆纳属外来杂草入侵性特征比较研究[D]. 南京: 南京农业大学, 2006.
[4] Manrique V, Diaz, R, Erazo L, et al. Comparison of two populations of Pseudophilothrips ichini (Thysanoptera: Phlaeothripidae) as candidates for biological control of the invasive weed Schinus terebinthifolia (Sapindales: Anacardiaceae)[J]. Biocontrol Science and Technology, 2014, 24(5): 518-535.
[5] Zhao H X, Yang N W, Huang H K, et al. Integrating biogeographic approach into classical biological control: Assessing the climate matching and ecological niche overlap of two natural enemies against common ragweed in China[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2023, 347: 119095.
[6] 马瑞燕, 王韧. 不同生态型的喜旱莲子草对莲草直胸跳甲化蛹能力的影响[J]. 植物生态学报, 2004(1): 24-30.
[7] Strathie L W, McConnachie A J, Retief E. Initiation of biological control against Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) in South Africa[J]. African Entomology, 2011, 19(2): 378-392.
[8] Tanvee A, Khaliq A, Ali H H, et al. Interference and management of parthenium: The world's most important invasive weed[J]. Crop Protection, 2015, 68: 49-59.
[9] 高兴祥, 李美, 曹坳程, 等. 银胶菊种子萌发特性及对除草剂的敏感性研究[C]. 第十一届全国杂草科学大会论文摘要集, 2013, 16-17.
[10] 高兴祥, 李美, 高宗军, 等. 外来入侵杂草银胶菊种子萌发特性及无性繁殖能力研究[J]. 生态环境学报, 2013, 22(1): 100-104.
[11] 唐赛春, 韦春强, 莫科, 等. 银胶菊在不同入侵生境中的繁殖特征[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 49(1): 90-94.
[12] Masum S M, Halim A, Mandal M S H, et al. Predicting current and future potential distributions of Parthenium hysterophorus in Bangladesh using Maximum entropy ecological niche modelling[J]. Agronomy, 2022, 12(7): 1592.
[13] Chhogyel N, Kumar L, Bajgai Y. Invasion status and impacts of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus) in West-Central region of Bhutan[J]. Biol Invasions, 2021, 23(1): 2763-2779.
[14] Tamado T, Ohlander L, Milberg P. Interference by the weed Parthenium hysterophorus L. with grain sorghum: Influence of weed density and duration of competition[J]. International Journal of Pest Management, 2002, 48(3): 183-188.
[15] Chippendale J F, Panetta F D, Branch L P, et al. The cost of parthenium weed to the Queensland cattle industry[J]. Plant Protection Quarterly, 1994, 9(2): 73-76.
[16] Drake J A. Management of invasive weeds[M]. Netherlands: Springer, 2009.
[17] Towers C H N, Subba Rao P V. Impact of the pan-tropical weed, Parthenium hysterophorus L. on human affairs[J]. Proceedings of the First International Weed Control Congress 1992, 1: 134-138.
[18] 蔺景娟. 植物疾病与害虫生物防治[J]. 河北农机, 2024(4): 84-86.
[19] Withers T M, Christensen J A, Burwell C J. Erixestus zygogrammae cave and Grissell (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae): An exotic egg parasitoid of Zygogrumma bicolorutu Pallister (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in Australia[J]. Australian Journal of Entomology, 1998, 37(1): 83-84.
[20] Dhileepan K. Effectiveness of introduced biocontrol insects on the weed Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae) in Australia[J]. Bulletin of Entomological Research, 2001, 91(3): 167-176.
[21] Sushilkumar D. Biological control of Parthenium in India: status and prospects[J]. Indian Journal of Weed Science, 2009, 41(1-2): 1-18.
[22] Dhileepan K, Setter S D, Mcfadyen R E. Impact of defoliation by the biocontrol agent Zygogramma bicolorata on the weed Parthenium hysterophorus in Australia[J]. BioControl, 2000, 45(4): 501-512.
[23] Peter S. Why do natural enemies fail in classical biological control programs?[J]. American Entomologist, 39(1): 31-37.
[24] Hokkanen H M T, Sailer R I. Sailer. Success in classical biological control[J]. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences, 1985, 3(1): 35-72.
[25] 陈文昱, 党英侨, 王小艺. 基于MaxEnt模型的白蜡吉丁啮小蜂的潜在适生区预测[J]. 中国生物防治学报, 2024,40(2): 235-247.
[26] 党志浩, 陈法军. 昆虫对降雨和干旱的响应与适应[J]. 应用昆虫学报, 2011, 48(5): 1161-1169.
[27] Zhao H X, Xian X Q, Yang N W, et al. Insights from the biogeographic approach for biocontrol of invasive alien pests: Estimating the ecological niche overlap of three egg parasitoids against Spodoptera frugiperda in China[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2023, 862: 160785.
[28] Rune H, Sabrina M, Bryn S, et al. Opportunities for improved distribution modelling practice via a strict maximum likelihood interpretation of MaxEnt[J]. Ecography, 2015, 38(2): 172-183.
[29] Baldwin R A. Use of maximum entropy modeling in wildlife research[J]. Entropy, 2009, 11(4): 854-866.
[30] Graham C H, Elith J, Hijmans R J, et al. The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution models[J]. Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008, 45(1): 239-247.
[31] Wan G Z, Wang L, Jin L, et al. Evaluation of environmental factors affecting the quality of Codonopsis pilosula based on chromatographic fingerprint and MaxEnt model[J]. Industrial Crops and Products, 2021, 170: 113783.
[32] Phillips S J, Dud′ık M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J]. Echography, 2008, 31(2): 161-175.
[33] Muscarella R, Galante P J, Soley-Guardia M, et al. ENMeval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity for MaxEnt ecological niche models[J]. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2014, 5(11): 1198-1205.
[34] 尧聪, 岳媛, 危永胜, 等. 基于MaxEnt模型的川续断气候适宜性分析[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 40(3): 60-67.
[35] 王晓玮, 任雪燕, 梁英梅. 基于MaxEnt模型的松针红斑病在中国的潜在分布区及适生性预测分析[J]. 林业科学, 2019, 55(4): 160-170.
[36] Warren D L, Glor R E, Turelli M. ENMTools: a toolbox for comparative studies of environmental niche models[J]. Echography, 2010, 33(3): 607-611.
[37] Dilts T E, Steele M O, Engler J D, et al. Host plants and climate structure habitat associations of the western monarch butterfly[J]. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 2019, 7: 1-17.
[38] 王运生, 谢丙炎, 万方浩, 等. ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J]. 生物多样性, 2007(4): 365-372.
[39] Vanagas G. Receiver operating characteristic curves and comparison of cardiac surgery risk stratification systems[J]. Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery, 2004, 3(2): 319-322.
[40] Swets J A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J]. Science, 1988, 240(4857): 1585-1293.
[41] 叶兴状, 张明珠, 赖文峰, 等. 基于MaxEnt优化模型的闽楠潜在适宜分布预测[J]. 生态学报, 2021, 41(20): 8135-8144.
[42] Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3-4): 231-259.
[43] 王春晓, 刘阳, 钟址非, 等. 气候变化下2 种银胶菊属入侵植物在中国的潜在适生区分析[J]. 亚热带植物科学, 2023, 52(2): 125-134.
[44] Arogoundade A M, Odindi J, Mutanga O. Modelling Parthenium hysterophorus invasion in KwaZulu-Natal province using remotely sensed data and environmental variables[J]. Geocarto International, 2020, 35(13): 1450-1465.
[45] Adhikari P, Lee Y-H, Poudel A, et al. Predicting the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of Parthenium hysterophorus around the world and in South Korea[J]. Biology, 2023, 12(1): 2-16.
[46] Mao R, Bajwa A A, Adkins S. A superweed in the making: adaptations of Parthenium hysterophorus to a changing climate: A review[J]. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 2021, 41(47):1-18.
[47] Kapoor R T. The stimulating impact of elevated temperatures on growth and productivity of Parthenium hysterophorus L.[J]. Egyptian Journal of Biology, 2014, 16(1): 51-56.
[48] Matzrafi M, Raz H, Rubin B, et al. Distribution and biology of the invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus L.in Israel[J]. Frontiers in Agronomy, 2021, 3: 639991.
[49] Weyl P. Parthenium hysterophorus (parthenium weed)[J]. CABI Compendium. Wallingford: CABI International.
[50] Ghazali M N, Sinniah U R, Hamdani M S A. Parthenium hysterophorus weed fecundity and seed survival at different soil ph and burial conditions[J].Pertanika Journal of Tropical Agricultural Science, 2023, 46(2): 593-606.
[51] 王国欢, 白帆, 桑卫国. 中国外来入侵生物的空间分布格局及其影响因素[J]. 植物科学学报, 2017, 35(4): 513-524.
[52] Pandey D K, Palni L M S, Joshi S C. Growth, reproduction, and photosynthesis of ragweed parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus)[J]. Weed Science, 2003, 51(2): 191-201.
[53] Skendžic′ S, Zovko M, Živkovic′ I P, et al. The impact of climate change on agricultural insect pests[J]. Insects, 2021, 12(5): 440.
[54] Omkar, Rastogi S, Pandey P. Effect of temperature on reproductive attributes of the Mexican beetle Zygogramma bicolorata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)[J]. International Journal of Tropical Insect Science, 2009, 29(1): 48-52.
[55] Omkar, Rastogi S, Pandey P. Effect of temperature on development and immature survival of Zygogramma bicolorata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) under laboratory conditions[J]. International Journal of Tropical Insect Science, 2008, 28(3): 130-135.
[56] Omkar, Rastogi S, Pervez A. Demographic attributes of the parthenium beetle Zygogramma bicolorata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) under different variables[J]. International Journal of Tropical Insect Science, 2013, 33(3): 170-177.
[57] Kumar S. Biological Control of Parthenium through Zygogramma bicolorata[M]. India: National Research Centre for Weed Science, 2005.
[58] Gharde Y, Sushilkumar, Sharma A R. Exploring models to predict the establishment of the leaf-feeding beetle Zygogramma bicolorata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) for the management of Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae: Heliantheae) in India[J]. Crop Protection, 2019, 122(8): 57-62.
[59] Strathie L W, Cowie B W, Mcconnachie A J, et al. A decade of biological control of Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) in South Africa reviewed: introduction of insect agents and their status[J]. African Entomology, 2021, 29(3): 809-806.