关键词: 番茄潜叶蛾, 适生区预测, 最大熵模型

Abstract: In order to study the suitable distribution and the future expansion/contraction trend of Tuta absoluta and clarify the potential hazards and threats in Guizhou province, in this article, MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS 10.8 software were used to predict the occurrence distribution of T. absoluta from now to the future based on the geographical information of 331 distribution points, 23 groups of bioclimatic variables and the biological environment variables from 2021 to 2100 under four SSP pathways. The results showed that the AUC value of the MaxEnt model was 0.958 and indicated that the model was more accurate in predicting the suitable area of T. absoluta. Through doing jackknife, november precipitation (p11), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), annual mean temperature (bio1), elevation (elev) and temperature annual range (bio7) were selected as the main limiting environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of T. absoluta. As predicted, the suitable area was about 159,670 km² in Guizhou province, accounting for 99.99% of the provincial area. The high risk area mainly included Guiyang, Anshun, Qianxinan prefecture and most areas of Liupanshui, Eastern Bijie, Northwestern Zunyi and most areas of Qiannan prefecture, and the area was approximately 89,400 km², accounting for 55.96% of the provincial area. The moderate risk areas were mainly concentrated in Qiandongnan prefecture, Tongren, Western Bijie, Southeastern Zunyi, Southern Qiannan Prefecture, with an area of 64,700 km² and accounting for 40.54%. In general, nearly 99.99% regions in Guizhou province were suitable for T. absoluta. The overall distribution range of T. absoluta shows a trend of first reduction and then expansion in the future development trend in China. From 2081 to 2100, the chang value of the suitable area would vary from -327,400 km² to 85,400 km². The total suitable area in our province would not change. The high risk area would tend to move westward, and the parts regions of Eastern, Southern and Northern parts of our province would be transferred from high to medium or low risk area. Therefore, our province has become one of the most important transfer stations for the spread of T. absoluta in our country. The western region of our province would also become high-risk areas. In view of this, the awareness of monitoring and early warning to T. absoluta should be further enhanced and the forecasting and prevention and control should be actively carried out to take positive measures to prevent further spread of T. absoluta.

Key words: Tuta absoluta, prediction of potential geographic distributions, maximum entropy models